Estimating the prevalence of hepatitis C infection in New York City using surveillance data

Hepatitis C virus is the most common chronic blood-borne infection in the USA. Based on results of a serosurvey, national prevalence is estimated to be 1·3% or 3·2 million people. Sub-national estimates are not available for most jurisdictions. Hepatitis C surveillance data was adjusted for death, out-migration, under-diagnosis, and undetectable blood RNA, to estimate prevalence in New York City (NYC). The prevalence of hepatitis C infection in adults aged ⩾20 years in NYC is 2·37% (range 1·53-4·90%) or 146 500 cases of hepatitis C. This analysis presents a mechanism for generating prevalence estimates using local surveillance data accounting for biases and difficulty in accessing hard to reach populations. As the cohort of patients with hepatitis C age and require additional medical care, local public health officials will need a method to generate prevalence estimates to allocate resources. This approach can serve as a guideline for generating local estimates using surveillance data that is less resource prohibitive.